Observational studies on the risks of animal-sourced foods have yielded mixed and inconclusive results

- What is the case against animal-sourced foods?
- Argument 1 - Beware of problematic input data
- Argument 2 - Weak associations are only indicative
- Argument 3 - Lifestyle confounding and healthy-user bias
- Argument 4a - Cherry picking (neutral outcomes)
- Argument 4b - Cherry picking (protective outcomes)
Additional commentary on the specific case of the Blue Zone argument can be found elsewhere on this website.
What is the case against animal-sourced foods?
Some observational studies suggest potential health benefits of vegan and vegetarian diets, such as lower risks of obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, certain cancers, and mortality. Conversely, high consumption of red and processed meats has sometimes been associated with increased disease and mortality risks. However, the evidence is inconclusive, and direct causal relationships cannot be established due to underlying methodological limitations and biases, as argued below.
Beware of problematic input data
Epidemiological research commonly relies on self-reported dietary data, mostly through food frequency questionnaires, which are prone to memory-based errors, biases, and inaccuracies.
Pre-defined food categories in these studies may fail to align with regulatory definitions or lack standardization, resulting in inconsistent classifications, particularly for ‘red’, ‘white’, and ‘processed’ meats. Self-reported dietary patterns, such as vegetarianism, can also be misclassified due to vague definitions and the inclusion of semi-vegetarians to increase sample sizes.
Social desirability bias further compromises data reliability, as respondents tend to report diets that align with perceived health norms—for example, obese individuals often underreport calorie intake, while self-identified (semi-)vegetarians may underreport occasional meat consumption.
Finally, survivorship bias further distorts findings by overrepresenting individuals genetically predisposed to succeed on vegetarian or vegan diets, while the majority find it challenging to maintain such diets over the long term. Consequently, studies on plant-based diets may disproportionately reflect the outcomes of a minority who can sustain these diets successfully.
Weak associations are only indicative
Robust methodological frameworks, such as the Bradford-Hill criteria and GRADE protocol, are required for evaluating the causal effects of dietary factors on health outcomes.
These studies typically report very low relative risks (RR), often below thresholds considered meaningful in evidence-based medicine. Generally, RR values less than 2 are poorly informative and should not be used to infer strong causal claims, especially when there is a suspicion of confounding. Only strong risk factors, like the effect of visceral fat on colorectal cancer (RR of 6), provide RRs of sufficient magnitude to assume a reliable causal relationship.
Comprehensive assessments have determined that the evidence supporting both the risks of red and processed meats and the benefits of plant-based diets is methodologically weak, inconsistent, and of (very) low certainty. Low RR values also parallel trivial absolute risks, which are rarely disclosed.
Lifestyle confounding and healthy-user bias
Observational studies on the health effects of animal-source foods are influenced by the broader context of diet quality, lifestyle habits, and socio-demographics, which make it difficult to accurately determine the relationship between food intake and health outcomes.
Research indicates that red meat intake may increase disease risk in populations with low fruit and vegetable intake, but can have neutral to protective effects when combined with higher fruit and vegetable consumption. Healthier vegetarians and healthier meat eaters tend to have lower health risks compared to less healthy meat eaters, highlighting the importance of the dietary context.
‘Healthy-user’ bias complicates the analysis further. Individuals who moderate their meat intake are likely more health-conscious and socioeconomically advantaged, which skews results by indirectly linking low meat intake with better health outcomes. As a result, studies comparing vegetarians and meat eaters with similar socio-demographic characteristics tend to show no differences in mortality. Also, meta-analyses excluding US Seventh-Day Adventist cohorts, known for their health-focused lifestyles, show weaker or no benefits of vegetarian diets.
When statistically adjusting for confounders like smoking and physical activity, associations with health risks are often rendered non-significant. For example, accounting for body weight seems to dissipate the link between meat intake and inflammation. However, residual confounding remains practically unavoidable.
Finally, associations between red and processed meat consumption and health risks observed in North America may not apply globally. Cultural and regional differences seem to affect the findings, being weaker in Europe and Asia. When red meat and/or processed meats are part of wholesome traditional diets, health outcomes are benign, as shown for the Southern European Atlantic diet. The worldwide PURE cohort even demonstrated a protective association between red meat intake and cardiovascular health and mortality at the global level.
Cherry picking - dismissal of neutral outcomes
Developing a case against animal-sourced foods is often based on cherry-picked evidence from observational studies. In many studies there is no unambiguous association between their avoidance and improved health.
The evidence on unprocessed red meat, for instance, is conflicting, with some of the large studies showing no association. Poultry, eggs, and dairy display mostly neutral or even protective associations with health, while butter's associations with mortality, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes are relatively small or neutral.
Cherry picking – dismissal of protective outcomes
The epidemiological case against animal-sourced foods is compounded by the selective reporting of data that supports a particular narrative while dismissing outcomes that contradict prior expectations and beliefs. For instance, there are many instances where vegetarian and vegan diets have been linked to poorer health outcomes and lower quality of life. Likewise, various studies associate the consumption of animal source foods with improved health.
To be consistent, those who rely on nutritional epidemiology to argue that we need more ‘plant-based’ eating would also need to acknowledge that some animal-sourced foods come with protective associations – implying that their underconsumption may be suboptimal for certain aspects of health.
The global PURE study, for instance, has associated health outcomes to the protective effects of fish, eggs, full-fat dairy, and poultry, while even red meat turned out to be benign. In several studies, red meat consumption has been specifically associated with a range of benefits, including lower morbidity, increased telomere length, and decreased risk of depression.
Conversely, some studies have linked vegetarian and vegan diets to poorer health outcomes and lower quality of life. However, it is essential to recognize that both pro-meat and pro-plant studies have limitations in establishing causal relationships.